数字之外的专业知识

How to Offset Inflation Now to Grow Your Wealth Over Time

安德鲁•汤普森 |董事总经理 SC&H财富管理

如果你最近没有在市场上买一辆二手车,甚至没有给你的车加满汽油, 我不想告诉你这个消息,它将比一年前贵25%. Inflation is back, and it hasn’t been this bad since 1982. 过多的货币追逐过少的商品正是导致我们今天所看到的通货膨胀和货币贬值的原因. Beyond putting a strain on your wallet, there are other implications to consider. Here’s the most pressing question we’re being asked right now:

“What changes should I make to my investment portfolio?”

Before we discuss your investments, let’s first discuss the aforementioned implications, 从购买力开始. 购买力是指你当前的财富在一段时间内保持其价值的能力,它能跟上通货膨胀的上升. 如果通货膨胀上升3%,你会希望确保你的财富增加了3%. 仅仅在通货膨胀时保持其价值的投资不会随着时间的推移为你的财富提供任何实际的增长.

这对于退休人员来说尤其重要,因为他们每年都要从自己的投资组合中提取一部分资金. If inflation is at 3% and your investments are rising at 3%, you’ll break even. 然而, if you’re drawing out 4% annually from your portfolio, your portfolio will decline in both nominal and real terms each year. 幸运的是, 对于这一困境,有一种解决办法:拥有已经证明有能力超越通胀的投资, thus maintaining their purchasing power net of withdrawals.

If we assume these averages continue, one will lose their purchasing power consistently by owning only cash and bonds. That loss is magnified in above-average inflationary periods such as now.

Let’s explore a few real-world examples:

利率

如果你的支票和储蓄账户的利率是0%,你已经实现了- 5.4% rate of return over the last twelve months in real terms. While your balance has remained the same, your dollars will buy less than 95% of what they could buy this time last year.

固定年金

If your fixed annuity is earning 3% per year, 好吧, you just saw 2.4% of it vanish over the past year. And if you’re receiving a fixed pension, it too has lost about 5.4% of its value over the past year. Furthermore, if your wages increased by less than 5.4%, you’re making less money this year in real terms than you were last year.

社会保障

For those receiving 社会保障 income, you may have been notified that your income was set to increase by 5.明年增长9%. 不幸的是, that means you’re merely only keeping up with the rise in prices, 没有得到多少加薪. You’re maintaining your purchasing power, 好吧, you’ll be close to it anyway but you’re not making more than last year.

Now, let’s discuss your investment portfolio.

When it comes to wealth management, 我们坚信,所有成功的投资都是目标导向和计划驱动的,而所有失败的投资都是市场导向和事件驱动的. When it comes to your investment portfolio, this means:

  • 你有一个以目标为中心的理财计划,仅仅是基于你的特殊情况
  • 你的作品集只有在计划被充分考虑和发展之后才被构建
  • 作为一个长期投资者,你的投资组合将拥有大量的股权

考虑所有因素, 当我们考虑到所有的证据——尤其是历史回报率(大约每年10%)时,将股权作为你整体财务状况的一部分是抵御通胀的最著名的防线。. 这种暴露是购买力和财富积累的关键组成部分. 否则, we’re far more likely to suffer the impact of inflation which, 正如我们讨论的, erodes your wealth’s ability to maintain its value in real terms.

Offsetting Inflation to Maintain the Value of Your Wealth

Inflation isn’t the signal to sell equities, far from it. 这正是我们拥有它们的原因. 从长远来看, 事实证明,对全球最大公司进行多元化配置是对冲通胀的有效手段. 我们已经见证了现金和债券的回报,要么是在通货膨胀率之下,要么是远低于通货膨胀率. If that’s the core component of a portfolio, 你几乎不可能维持自己的能力,以跟上食品等商品价格的上涨, 能源, 和医疗.

Now, that’s not to say that cash and bonds don’t have a place in your portfolio. They play a crucial role, providing necessary liquidity in the short term. 例如,当股票暂时下跌超过其历史平均水平(14.3%)4 你可以考虑使用多余的现金而不是出售股票来获得他们需要的收入. 当你知道在2-5年内需要钱的时候,债券可能是存放这些钱的最佳场所. 正确的组合是长期投资成功的关键因素.

我对未来的通货膨胀或任何其他市场事件没有远见. 我知道的是, and what our team understands best, is that with proper planning and perspective, we have incredible antidotes to an unknown and uncertain future. 如果你感到焦虑,或者对这一切对你和你的投资组合的影响有疑问, 请与我们联系 财富管理团队.

1 .历史通胀是过去50年的平均水平,以总体CPI衡量, a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and 能源 prices. 来源:J.P. Morgan Asset Management; “Guide to the Markets.“10月. 31, 2021 (“J.P. 摩根:市场指南).

美国政府债券的回报是通过1958年至2021年间10年期国债的名义收益率来衡量的. 来源:J.P. 摩根:市场指南.

3 Stock / equity returns are measured by the S&P 500指数. Historical average is the last 50 years through 2020. Present day average is the last 10 years through 2020. Source: The Motley Fool; “Average Stock Market Return.”9月更新. 3, 2021.

4 This figure refers to intra-year drops, 从1980年到2020年的一年内,从峰值到低谷的最大跌幅是多少. 来源:J.P. 摩根:市场指南.


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