数字之外的专业知识

通货膨胀、债务和短缺如何给企业带来短期麻烦

肯曼,常务董事 SC&H资本

最初, ABL顾问 2021年9月23日

经济复苏强劲,但并非普遍

尽管爆发了一场破坏性的、全球性的流行病,但这一流行病还是导致美国的艾滋病发病率下降了34%&P 2,237, 失业率接近15%, and a drastically low labor force participation rate of 60%—consumers still managed to reduce credit card debt and set the stage for robust economic growth.

根据Experian, 2019年第三季度至2021年第三季度, 信用卡余额下降了24%, 信用卡债务8年来首次下降. 消费者现金充裕,储蓄率是二战以来最高的. 利率处于历史最低水平,资金也很容易获得. 美国.S. 政府向我们的经济注入了大量的现金, and most businesses found Payroll Protection Program (PPP) “loans” to be a generous equity infusion from Uncle Sam. 作为一个结果, 尽管Covid-19和激增的Delta变种, our consumer-driven economy is humming along with robust GDP growth and commercial borrowers boasting strong balance sheets and healthy backlogs.

在2020年春天Covid-19的一场严重疫情之后, 此后,公开股票市场表现出了令人难以置信的免疫力. 到2021年9月,南苏丹将迎来新的一年&P had hit more than 52 highs and, even as I write this, it sits at 4,537 — yet another all-time high. 股票价格一直在稳步上升, 将低点(2020年3月)翻倍的速度比任何其他回调之后都快, 即使面对由大流行病引发的持续不确定性. 在这一繁荣时期,S&自2020年11月以来,P 500指数从未出现过5%或以上的跌幅.

即便如此, our firm has seen a significant uptick in conversations with distressed companies, 有些人, 包括我, 看到理由,认为许多企业将很快面临经济动荡. 你可能会问,这怎么可能? What could possibly go wrong that would lead to defaults for some of the businesses with whom you work?

的re are latent “boogiemen” creeping about, just waiting to prey on unexpecting businesses. 他们的名字是:

  • 通货膨胀
  • 降低流动性(消费者和企业)
  • 过剩的公司债
  • 短缺(劳动力和材料)

提示一个新兴的经济现实检查

刺激计划的支票储蓄正在逐渐减少, 消费者又回到了原来的模式, 债务也在上升. 在 G.19日报告 8月4日, the Fed revealed that the highest jump in household debt in 14 years occurred in the second quarter. 消费者正在表现出购买奢侈品时使用信用卡的意愿, 喜欢假期, 外出就餐, 以及主要的家庭装修. 一个信用卡.com survey found 44% of people were willing to take on debt in the second half of 2021 for non-essential purchases. This all bodes well for the short term; there will be spending… and a lot of it. 不用说,我们都知道挥霍无度的时期之后会发生什么.

企业要注意:你还没有脱离危险

Low interest rates and relatively easy money have led to a lot of borrowing over an extended period of time. Now, massive amounts of debt are held by non-financials at incredibly low interest rates. 同时, 我们正在经历通货膨胀, 其中一些肯定是暂时的(正如联邦政府所说), 有些可能不会. 根据福布斯, 过去的三个月, 以消费者价格指数(CPI)衡量的消费者通胀已从5月份的5%上升到5月份的5%.6、7月份同比增长4%.

经济周期就是这样, 高水平的债务加上通货膨胀导致利率上升, 你猜对了, 最终的衰退. 与此同时,商业利率也将面临压力, 消费者将开始感受到其他一些压力. 刺激计划的支票将被花掉, 房租将随着驱逐令的解除而到期, 信用卡债务也会慢慢上升, 减少购买力.

利率上升将削弱那些负债过多的企业, 不幸的是, 它可能发生在对他们产品的需求减少的时候. PPP基金为企业注入了活力, 但这种生命维持系统将在今年年底消失. 当然,许多企业将会有现金缓冲,但这是有限的.

与此同时, 即使有充足的库存和热切的顾客, 许多公司都在努力利用这一激增的需求. 他们不能雇佣足够的劳动力,或者他们缺乏产品,面临长时间的生产. 这几乎是每个业务经理都面临的共同挑战. 据美国联邦储备委员会经济数据中心报道. 路易美联储, with information sourced by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 到2021年5月,大约有9只.美国有200万个职位空缺.S.2020年2月,该数字仅略高于700万. 从咖啡到汽车,所有东西都短缺, 电脑芯片, 胶合板, 集装箱, 甚至是食物成分, 我们所依赖的许多被压抑的需求将无法实现.

的se supply chain issues create substantial cashflow challenges for many businesses. 例如, a small manufacturer that used to buy raw materials “just in time” with 30-day terms, 现在要大量购买材料吗, 通常是货到付款,甚至是预付现金, 订单或工作还需要几个月才能完成并计费. 等这个假设的生意, 转换, 销售产品并收取相关应收账款, it may have a cash cycle of five or more months versus the one or two months it is accustomed to. 速度和现金流对大多数企业的健康至关重要.

另外, many smaller debt-laden manufacturers do not have the resources to retrofit facilities to operate in a Covid-safe manner, 这最终阻碍了一些员工回国工作. Nor do they have the resources to automate to fill the gaps left by workers unwilling to physically return to work due to associated risks, 或者更糟, 在大辞职中继续前进.

通往机会(和生存)的道路

对于那些陷入这种消极范式的企业, 迫切需要考虑以下三个战略计划中的一个:

  • 获得债务融资 这种灵活性足以让企业度过这个过渡期.
  • 增加或注入股本 帮助改善资产负债表和流动性. 的 市场上仍然充斥着私人股本 寻找资源分配.
  • 销售业务 to a financially stronger suitor before it hits the cash flow wall or loses customers because it is unable to keep up with orders. 目前,卖家的估值处于历史高位.

对于这些捉襟见肘的公司来说,好消息是他们知识渊博, 有经验的专业人士可以介入并提供帮助. Many asset-based lenders are getting creative and stepping up with increasingly creative and flexible offerings—presumably motivated by their own economic interests and a desire to best serve their borrowers.

当然, 旺盛的需求和低利率, 在可预见的未来,大多数企业都处于有利地位. 的y do have the liquidity to deal with these potential challenges and opportunity abounds. 这些更澳门葡京官网组织将:

  • 投资进一步自动化, 吸引优质人力资本, 保证员工安全, and use technology to make sure the business operates smoothly even when some workers will need to stay home
  • 开发多个产品来源, 建立安全库存, 从“及时”到“以防万一”的库存管理
  • Grab market share by promoting shorter lead times and more stable pricing options, 同时享受着他们所需要的健康利润率

谨慎行事

When we combine past observations with current conversations with management teams expressing frustration and struggles around inflation and shortages, 谨慎是至关重要的.

Businesses must be careful about overreacting and stocking up on product(s) at high prices or going too deep into futures contracts. It can be difficult to compete profitably if prices fall and competitors are later buying materials at a substantial discount off what the aggressive hoarder paid. We are seeing construction companies stockpiling certain materials at soaring prices, and agricultural businesses and big fuel consumers stretched in hedging positions facing margin calls or potentially pricing themselves out of competition six to 12 months out.

For those business owners that are considering an exit in the near to medium turn, 这是一个值得思考的时候, 没有如果, 我们可能会看到更高的兴趣——因此, 卖家的市盈率更低——以及何时, 没有如果, 下一次衰退很可能到来.

的 pressing question for these leaders is: How can we best position to sell before that recession?

Lenders and consultants will be well-served to evaluate each company with an eye towards how the management team is responding and preparing for the likely threats ahead, and if their financial statements indicate the wherewithal to thrive through them.

If you have any questions about how to create a path forward and overcome potential challenges, 葡京官网的特殊情况小组.